Reddit is for sure far better than Distrowatch, but still lacks insight.
For example, it completely misses to account for Enterprise Linux.
Most “believably accurate” popularity ranking I’ve seen, is by Google Trends 2023-2024:
(originally posted here)
Edit
To be clear, even that representation has biases.
It rather represents popularity as in “interest” than “usage” (which may be clear in the case of Kali for example).